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Bulawayo Chiefs vs Sheasham — Premier Soccer League 2026

Bulawayo Chiefs
Bulawayo Chiefs
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sheasham
Sheasham
5/13/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 9Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bulawayo Chiefs46%
×Draw31%
Sheasham23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulawayo Chiefs
1.17
Sheasham
0.74

Bulawayo Chiefs creates 58% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bulawayo Chiefs
1.04
Sheasham
0.59

allows per match

Bulawayo Chiefs
0.89
Sheasham
1.29

finishing

Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par
Sheasham+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulawayo Chiefs ↓

Sheasham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bulawayo Chiefs or draw
77%
Bulawayo Chiefs or Sheasham
69%
Draw or Sheasham
54%

Winning margin

Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+
20%
Sheasham wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals
69%
Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals
33%
Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals
11%
Sheasham 1+ goals
52%
Sheasham 2+ goals
17%
Sheasham 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)
66%
Sheasham (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulawayo Chiefs at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Sheasham away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 1.04 + Sheasham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sheasham attack 0.59 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bulawayo Chiefs scores more
46%
level
31%
Sheasham scores more
23%

Bulawayo Chiefs at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bulawayo Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulawayo Chiefs vs Sheasham

Bulawayo Chiefs beat Sheasham 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Luveve Stadium in Bulawayo.