Shashemene Kenema 0–2 Kedus Giorgis: Result & Stats

Shashemene Kenema

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kedus Giorgis

3/16/2024

Premier League · Round 18Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shashemene Kenema18%

×Draw27%

Kedus Giorgis54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shashemene KenemaExpected goals in this matchKedus Giorgis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

1.41

Shashemene Kenema

0.69

Kedus Giorgis

1.41

Kedus Giorgis creates 104% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

0.60

creates per match

1.29

1.53

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Shashemene Kenema

0.60

Kedus Giorgis

1.29

allows per match

Shashemene Kenema

1.53

Kedus Giorgis

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shashemene Kenema ↓

Kedus Giorgis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–117%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shashemene Kenema or draw

46%

Shashemene Kenema or Kedus Giorgis

73%

Draw or Kedus Giorgis

82%

Winning margin

Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+

5%

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals

50%

Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals

15%

Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals

3%

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals

76%

Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals

41%

Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)

25%

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shashemene Kenema at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.60 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.69

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shashemene Kenema scores more

18%

level

27%

Kedus Giorgis scores more

54%

Kedus Giorgis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff