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Kedus Giorgis vs Shashemene Kenema — Premier League 2019

Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
10/20/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kedus Giorgis48%
×Draw29%
Shashemene Kenema24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedus Giorgis
1.30
Shashemene Kenema
0.83

Kedus Giorgis creates 57% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis
1.33
Shashemene Kenema
0.87

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis
0.79
Shashemene Kenema
1.27

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par
Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

Shashemene Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw
76%
Kedus Giorgis or Shashemene Kenema
71%
Draw or Shashemene Kenema
52%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
22%
Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
73%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
37%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
14%
Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
56%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
20%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
67%
Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.79 · 102 matches

Shashemene Kenema away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.33 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.87 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more
48%
level
29%
Shashemene Kenema scores more
24%

Kedus Giorgis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kedus Giorgis vs Shashemene Kenema

Kedus Giorgis beat Shashemene Kenema 3-2 in Premier League on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.