Shashemene Kenema 3–1 Hambericho Durame

Shashemene Kenema

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Hambericho Durame

7/5/2024

Premier League · Round 30Hawassa University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shashemene Kenema42%

×Draw27%

Hambericho Durame31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shashemene KenemaExpected goals in this matchHambericho Durame

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Shashemene Kenema

1.33

Hambericho Durame

1.10

Shashemene Kenema creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.60

creates per match

0.67

1.53

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Shashemene Kenema

0.60

Hambericho Durame

0.67

allows per match

Shashemene Kenema

1.53

Hambericho Durame

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shashemene Kenema ↓

Hambericho Durame →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shashemene Kenema or draw

69%

Shashemene Kenema or Hambericho Durame

73%

Draw or Hambericho Durame

58%

Winning margin

Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+

19%

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals

74%

Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals

38%

Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals

15%

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals

67%

Hambericho Durame 2+ goals

30%

Hambericho Durame 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)

58%

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shashemene Kenema at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Hambericho Durame away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.60 + Hambericho Durame defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hambericho Durame attack 0.67 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shashemene Kenema scores more

42%

level

27%

Hambericho Durame scores more

31%

Shashemene Kenema at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shashemene Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff