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Hambericho Durame vs Shashemene Kenema — Premier League 2019

Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
1/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hambericho Durame20%
×Draw29%
Shashemene Kenema51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hambericho Durame
0.70
Shashemene Kenema
1.30

Shashemene Kenema creates 86% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hambericho Durame
0.13
Shashemene Kenema
0.87

allows per match

Hambericho Durame
1.73
Shashemene Kenema
1.27

finishing

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par
Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hambericho Durame ↓

Shashemene Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hambericho Durame or draw
49%
Hambericho Durame or Shashemene Kenema
71%
Draw or Shashemene Kenema
80%

Winning margin

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
6%
Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
50%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
16%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
3%
Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
73%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
37%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
28%
Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hambericho Durame at home — creates 0.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Shashemene Kenema away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hambericho Durame attack 0.13 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.70

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.87 + Hambericho Durame defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hambericho Durame scores more
20%
level
29%
Shashemene Kenema scores more
51%

Shashemene Kenema at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shashemene Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hambericho Durame 0–3 Shashemene Kenema

Shashemene Kenema beat Hambericho Durame 3-0 in Premier League on January 18, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.