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Shashemene Kenema vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank — Premier League 2019

Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
6/30/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Hawassa University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shashemene Kenema22%
×Draw28%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shashemene Kenema
0.81
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.38

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 52 away

creates per match

Shashemene Kenema
0.60
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.23

allows per match

Shashemene Kenema
1.53
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.02

finishing

Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par
Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shashemene Kenema ↓

Ethiopia Nigd Bank →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shashemene Kenema or draw
50%
Shashemene Kenema or Ethiopia Nigd Bank
72%
Draw or Ethiopia Nigd Bank
78%

Winning margin

Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
7%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
56%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
19%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
5%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
75%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
40%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
30%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shashemene Kenema at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.60 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.81

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.23 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shashemene Kenema scores more
22%
level
28%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
50%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shashemene Kenema vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Ethiopia Nigd Bank beat Shashemene Kenema 2-0 in Premier League on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Hawassa University Stadium in Hawassa.