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Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Shashemene Kenema — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
12/10/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank46%
×Draw27%
Shashemene Kenema26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.37
Shashemene Kenema
0.96

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 43% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.47
Shashemene Kenema
0.87

allows per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.04
Shashemene Kenema
1.27

finishing

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par
Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Nigd Bank ↓

Shashemene Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ethiopia Nigd Bank or draw
74%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank or Shashemene Kenema
73%
Draw or Shashemene Kenema
54%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
22%
Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
75%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
40%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
16%
Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
62%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
25%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
64%
Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Shashemene Kenema away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.47 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.87 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
46%
level
27%
Shashemene Kenema scores more
26%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Shashemene Kenema

Ethiopia Nigd Bank beat Shashemene Kenema 2-1 in Premier League on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.