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Shashemene Kenema vs Bahardar — Premier League 2019

Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bahardar
Bahardar
1/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shashemene Kenema20%
×Draw28%
Bahardar52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shashemene Kenema
0.72
Bahardar
1.34

Bahardar creates 86% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 103 away

creates per match

Shashemene Kenema
0.60
Bahardar
1.16

allows per match

Shashemene Kenema
1.53
Bahardar
0.85

finishing

Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par
Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shashemene Kenema ↓

Bahardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shashemene Kenema or draw
48%
Shashemene Kenema or Bahardar
72%
Draw or Bahardar
80%

Winning margin

Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
6%
Bahardar wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
51%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
16%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
4%
Bahardar 1+ goals
74%
Bahardar 2+ goals
39%
Bahardar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
28%
Bahardar (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shashemene Kenema at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.60 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.72

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shashemene Kenema scores more
20%
level
28%
Bahardar scores more
52%

Bahardar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shashemene Kenema vs Bahardar

Shashemene Kenema and Bahardar drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 4, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.