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Bahardar vs Shashemene Kenema — Premier League 2019

Bahardar
Bahardar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
4/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bahardar43%
×Draw29%
Shashemene Kenema28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahardar
1.20
Shashemene Kenema
0.91

Bahardar creates 32% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bahardar
1.12
Shashemene Kenema
0.87

allows per match

Bahardar
0.94
Shashemene Kenema
1.27

finishing

Bahardar+0.00on par
Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahardar ↓

Shashemene Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bahardar or draw
72%
Bahardar or Shashemene Kenema
71%
Draw or Shashemene Kenema
57%

Winning margin

Bahardar wins by 2+
19%
Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bahardar 1+ goals
70%
Bahardar 2+ goals
34%
Bahardar 3+ goals
12%
Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
60%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
23%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bahardar (draw refunded)
60%
Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahardar at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Shashemene Kenema away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahardar attack 1.12 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.87 + Bahardar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bahardar scores more
43%
level
29%
Shashemene Kenema scores more
28%

Bahardar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bahardar 1–0 Shashemene Kenema

Bahardar beat Shashemene Kenema 1-0 in Premier League on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.