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Shashemene Kenema vs Adama Kenema — Premier League 2019

Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
12/17/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shashemene Kenema27%
×Draw28%
Adama Kenema45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shashemene Kenema
0.92
Adama Kenema
1.29

Adama Kenema creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Shashemene Kenema
0.60
Adama Kenema
1.04

allows per match

Shashemene Kenema
1.53
Adama Kenema
1.23

finishing

Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par
Adama Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shashemene Kenema ↓

Adama Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shashemene Kenema or draw
55%
Shashemene Kenema or Adama Kenema
72%
Draw or Adama Kenema
73%

Winning margin

Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
9%
Adama Kenema wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
60%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
23%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
7%
Adama Kenema 1+ goals
72%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
37%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
37%
Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shashemene Kenema at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Adama Kenema away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.60 + Adama Kenema defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.92

Adama Kenema attack 1.04 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shashemene Kenema scores more
27%
level
28%
Adama Kenema scores more
45%

Adama Kenema at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Adama Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shashemene Kenema vs Adama Kenema

Shashemene Kenema and Adama Kenema drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.