Adama Kenema 1–0 Shashemene Kenema: Result & Stats

Adama Kenema

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shashemene Kenema

5/2/2024

Premier League · Round 23Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Adama Kenema39%

×Draw29%

Shashemene Kenema31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adama KenemaExpected goals in this matchShashemene Kenema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.99

Adama Kenema

1.15

Shashemene Kenema

0.99

Adama Kenema creates 16% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

1.02

creates per match

0.87

1.11

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Adama Kenema

1.02

Shashemene Kenema

0.87

allows per match

Adama Kenema

1.11

Shashemene Kenema

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adama Kenema+0.00on par

Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adama Kenema ↓

Shashemene Kenema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Adama Kenema or draw

69%

Adama Kenema or Shashemene Kenema

71%

Draw or Shashemene Kenema

61%

Winning margin

Adama Kenema wins by 2+

16%

Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Adama Kenema 1+ goals

68%

Adama Kenema 2+ goals

32%

Adama Kenema 3+ goals

11%

Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals

63%

Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals

26%

Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Adama Kenema (draw refunded)

56%

Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adama Kenema at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 101 matches

Shashemene Kenema away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adama Kenema attack 1.02 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.87 + Adama Kenema defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Adama Kenema scores more

39%

level

29%

Shashemene Kenema scores more

31%

Adama Kenema at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Adama Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff