Sharjah FC 0–5 Tractor Sazi: Result & Stats

Sharjah FC

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Tractor Sazi

10/20/2025

AFC Champions League Elite · League Phase West - 3Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sharjah FC14%

×Draw19%

Tractor Sazi67%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sharjah FCExpected goals in this matchTractor Sazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

2.17

Sharjah FC

0.85

Tractor Sazi

2.17

Tractor Sazi creates 155% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

2.20

2.13

allows per match

0.20

creates per match

Sharjah FC

1.50

Tractor Sazi

2.20

allows per match

Sharjah FC

2.13

Tractor Sazi

0.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Tractor Sazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw

33%

Sharjah FC or Tractor Sazi

81%

Draw or Tractor Sazi

86%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+

4%

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals

57%

Sharjah FC 2+ goals

21%

Sharjah FC 3+ goals

5%

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals

89%

Tractor Sazi 2+ goals

64%

Tractor Sazi 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)

17%

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.50 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Tractor Sazi attack 2.20 + Sharjah FC defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sharjah FC scores more

14%

level

19%

Tractor Sazi scores more

67%

Tractor Sazi at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff