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Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — Presidents Cup 2019

Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Shabab Al Ahli Dubaiadvanced
5/9/2025Presidents CupPresidents Cup · FinalMohammed Bin Zayed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sharjah FC29%
×Draw24%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sharjah FC
1.31
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1.73

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai creates 32% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sharjah FC
1.90
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1.55

allows per match

Sharjah FC
1.90
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
0.73

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw
53%
Sharjah FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
76%
Draw or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
71%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+
12%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals
73%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
38%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
14%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals
82%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals
52%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
38%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.90 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.55 + Sharjah FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sharjah FC scores more
29%
level
24%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more
47%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Presidents Cup: Sharjah FC 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Sharjah FC 2-1 in Presidents Cup on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi.