Sharjah FC 1–1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: Result & Stats

Sharjah FC

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

3/12/2025

AFC Cup · Quarter-finalsSharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sharjah FC49%

×Draw21%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sharjah FCExpected goals in this matchShabab Al Ahli Dubai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.63

Sharjah FC

2.13

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.63

Sharjah FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.50

creates per match

2.25

1.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sharjah FC

2.50

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2.25

allows per match

Sharjah FC

1.00

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw

70%

Sharjah FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

79%

Draw or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

51%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+

29%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals

88%

Sharjah FC 2+ goals

63%

Sharjah FC 3+ goals

35%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

80%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

48%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)

62%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 2.50 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 2.25 + Sharjah FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sharjah FC scores more

49%

level

21%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

30%

Sharjah FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sharjah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff