Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sharjah FC vs Pakhtakor — AFC Champions League 2018

Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
4/20/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group B - 3Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sharjah FC43%
×Draw26%
Pakhtakor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sharjah FC
1.41
Pakhtakor
1.13

Sharjah FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sharjah FC
1.47
Pakhtakor
0.78

allows per match

Sharjah FC
1.47
Pakhtakor
1.35

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par
Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Pakhtakor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw
70%
Sharjah FC or Pakhtakor
74%
Draw or Pakhtakor
57%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+
21%
Pakhtakor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals
76%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
41%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
17%
Pakhtakor 1+ goals
68%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
31%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
59%
Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.47 + Pakhtakor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Pakhtakor attack 0.78 + Sharjah FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sharjah FC scores more
43%
level
26%
Pakhtakor scores more
30%

Sharjah FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sharjah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sharjah FC vs Pakhtakor

Sharjah FC beat Pakhtakor 4-1 in AFC Champions League on April 20, 2021.

The match was played at Sharjah Stadium in Sharjah.