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Pakhtakor vs Sharjah FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
4/23/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group B - 4Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pakhtakor41%
×Draw25%
Sharjah FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.50
Sharjah FC
1.33

Pakhtakor creates 13% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
1.52
Sharjah FC
1.24

allows per match

Pakhtakor
1.43
Sharjah FC
1.47

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Sharjah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
66%
Pakhtakor or Sharjah FC
75%
Draw or Sharjah FC
59%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
20%
Sharjah FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
78%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
44%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
19%
Sharjah FC 1+ goals
74%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
38%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
55%
Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Sharjah FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Sharjah FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sharjah FC attack 1.24 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
41%
level
25%
Sharjah FC scores more
34%

Pakhtakor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Pakhtakor 1–1 Sharjah FC

Pakhtakor and Sharjah FC drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on April 23, 2021.

The match was played at Sharjah Stadium in Sharjah.