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Sharjah FC vs Istiqlol — AFC Cup 2018

Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Istiqlol
Istiqlol
11/26/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sharjah FC65%
×Draw19%
Istiqlol16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sharjah FC
2.33
Istiqlol
1.08

Sharjah FC creates 116% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sharjah FC
2.50
Istiqlol
1.17

allows per match

Sharjah FC
1.00
Istiqlol
2.17

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par
Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Istiqlol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw
84%
Sharjah FC or Istiqlol
81%
Draw or Istiqlol
35%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+
42%
Istiqlol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals
90%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
67%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
41%
Istiqlol 1+ goals
66%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
29%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
80%
Istiqlol (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 2.50 + Istiqlol defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Istiqlol attack 1.17 + Sharjah FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sharjah FC scores more
65%
level
19%
Istiqlol scores more
16%

Sharjah FC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sharjah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Sharjah FC 3–1 Istiqlol

Sharjah FC beat Istiqlol 3-1 in AFC Cup on November 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sharjah Stadium in Sharjah.