Sharjah FC 2–1 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Sharjah FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Istiqlol

4/11/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sharjah FC48%

×Draw25%

Istiqlol27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sharjah FCExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.15

Sharjah FC

1.61

Istiqlol

1.15

Sharjah FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

1.47

creates per match

0.83

1.47

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sharjah FC

1.47

Istiqlol

0.83

allows per match

Sharjah FC

1.47

Istiqlol

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw

73%

Sharjah FC or Istiqlol

75%

Draw or Istiqlol

52%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+

25%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals

80%

Sharjah FC 2+ goals

48%

Sharjah FC 3+ goals

22%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

68%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

32%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)

64%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.47 + Istiqlol defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Istiqlol attack 0.83 + Sharjah FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sharjah FC scores more

48%

level

25%

Istiqlol scores more

27%

Sharjah FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sharjah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff