Sharjah FC 1–1 Al-Rayyan SC: Result & Stats

Sharjah FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Rayyan SC

4/15/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sharjah FC43%

×Draw24%

Al-Rayyan SC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sharjah FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Rayyan SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.38

Sharjah FC

1.63

Al-Rayyan SC

1.38

Sharjah FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.47

creates per match

1.28

1.47

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Sharjah FC

1.47

Al-Rayyan SC

1.28

allows per match

Sharjah FC

1.47

Al-Rayyan SC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Al-Rayyan SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw

67%

Sharjah FC or Al-Rayyan SC

76%

Draw or Al-Rayyan SC

57%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+

22%

Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals

80%

Sharjah FC 2+ goals

48%

Sharjah FC 3+ goals

22%

Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals

75%

Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals

40%

Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)

57%

Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Al-Rayyan SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.47 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Al-Rayyan SC attack 1.28 + Sharjah FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sharjah FC scores more

43%

level

24%

Al-Rayyan SC scores more

33%

Sharjah FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sharjah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff