Al-Rayyan SC 3–1 Sharjah FC: Result & Stats

Al-Rayyan SC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sharjah FC

4/19/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Rayyan SC32%

×Draw24%

Sharjah FC43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Rayyan SCExpected goals in this matchSharjah FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.59

Al-Rayyan SC

1.33

Sharjah FC

1.59

Sharjah FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

1.20

creates per match

1.24

1.95

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Al-Rayyan SC

1.20

Sharjah FC

1.24

allows per match

Al-Rayyan SC

1.95

Sharjah FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par

Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Rayyan SC ↓

Sharjah FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al-Rayyan SC or draw

57%

Al-Rayyan SC or Sharjah FC

76%

Draw or Sharjah FC

68%

Winning margin

Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+

14%

Sharjah FC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals

74%

Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals

38%

Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals

15%

Sharjah FC 1+ goals

80%

Sharjah FC 2+ goals

47%

Sharjah FC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)

42%

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Rayyan SC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Sharjah FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Rayyan SC attack 1.20 + Sharjah FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sharjah FC attack 1.24 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Rayyan SC scores more

32%

level

24%

Sharjah FC scores more

43%

Sharjah FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sharjah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff