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Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira — League #301 2026

Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Al-Jazira
Al-Jazira
Caio Lucas 82'
O. Camara 45+4'
F. Ben Arbi 30'
Luanzinho 21'
9/21/2024League #301League #301 · Round 3Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sharjah FC44%
×Draw25%
Al-Jazira32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sharjah FC
1.59
Al-Jazira
1.32

Sharjah FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sharjah FC
1.38
Al-Jazira
1.40

allows per match

Sharjah FC
1.25
Al-Jazira
1.80

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par
Al-Jazira+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Al-Jazira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw
68%
Sharjah FC or Al-Jazira
75%
Draw or Al-Jazira
56%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+
22%
Al-Jazira wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals
80%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
47%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
21%
Al-Jazira 1+ goals
73%
Al-Jazira 2+ goals
38%
Al-Jazira 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
58%
Al-Jazira (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Al-Jazira away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.38 + Al-Jazira defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Al-Jazira attack 1.40 + Sharjah FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sharjah FC scores more
44%
level
25%
Al-Jazira scores more
32%

Sharjah FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sharjah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Caio LucasSharjah FCSharjah FC · F
9.3

Match Events

12'
Neeskens KebanoCard upgrade
13'
Neeskens Kebano
17'
Marcus Meloni
21'
Luanzinho↳ Caio Lucas
30'
F. Ben Arbi↳ Caio Lucas
45+4'
O. Camara↳ Caio Lucas
46'
Mohammad Abdulbasit← Marcus Meloni
60'
Ali KhasifCard reviewed
67'
Shaheen Abdalla← M. Katinić
67'
Guilherme Biro← O. Camara
67'
Bruno← N. Fekir
67'
O. Traoré← Mohammed Al Attas
77'
Paco Alcácer← Luanzinho
82'
Majed Hassan← Khaled Ebraheim
82'
Caio Lucas↳ Paco Alcácer
90'
Hamdan Abdulrahman← R. Akonnor

Possession

52%Sharjah

Shots

14Sharjah

Pass accuracy

51%Sharjah

Statistics

SharjahAl-Jazira
Overview
52%Possession48%
14Total Shots7
7Corners2
7Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots7
7On Target1
2Off Target4
5Blocked2
9Inside Box3
5Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
436Total Passes390
386Accurate Passes329
89%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira

Sharjah FC beat Al-Jazira 4-0 in League #301 on September 21, 2024.

Goals: Luanzinho (21'), F. Ben Arbi (30'), O. Camara (45+4'), Caio Lucas (82').

Sharjah FC controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Sharjah.