Al-Jazira 1–1 Sharjah FC: Result & Stats

Al-Jazira

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sharjah FC

N. Kebano 10' (pen)

F. Ben Arbi 45+4' (pen)

4/27/2025

League #301 · Round 16Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Jazira63%

×Draw18%

Sharjah FC19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-JaziraExpected goals in this matchSharjah FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.31

Al-Jazira

2.48

Sharjah FC

1.31

Al-Jazira creates 89% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

3.40

creates per match

1.43

1.20

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Al-Jazira

3.40

Sharjah FC

1.43

allows per match

Al-Jazira

1.20

Sharjah FC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Jazira+0.00on par

Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Jazira ↓

Sharjah FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Al-Jazira or draw

81%

Al-Jazira or Sharjah FC

82%

Draw or Sharjah FC

37%

Winning margin

Al-Jazira wins by 2+

41%

Sharjah FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Jazira 1+ goals

92%

Al-Jazira 2+ goals

70%

Al-Jazira 3+ goals

44%

Sharjah FC 1+ goals

73%

Sharjah FC 2+ goals

38%

Sharjah FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al-Jazira (draw refunded)

77%

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Jazira at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Sharjah FC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Jazira attack 3.40 + Sharjah FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.48

Sharjah FC attack 1.43 + Al-Jazira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al-Jazira scores more

63%

level

18%

Sharjah FC scores more

19%

Al-Jazira at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al-Jazira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Ben Arbi

Sharjah FC · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

N. KebanoPenalty

45+4'

F. Ben ArbiPenalty

66'

Caio Lucas← Guilherme Biro

67'

N. Chadli← N. Fekir

67'

Bruno Conceição← O. Traoré

67'

T. Conraad← A. Taarabt

75'

Majed Hassan← Mohammad Abdulbasit

76'

Khalid Bawazir← F. Ben Arbi

87'

Shahin Abdulrahman

88'

Ahmed Fawzi← N. Kebano

90+5'

90+6'

90+5'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-JaziraSharjah

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots12

3Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target4

6Off Target5

4Blocked3

6Inside Box8

7Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

408Total Passes420

338Accurate Passes353

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides4