Sharjah FC 2–2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Result & Stats

Sharjah FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Majid Rashid 45+1'

O. Camara 5'

Salem Al Dawsari 90+6' (pen)

Muteb Al Mufarrij 78'

4/23/2022

AFC Champions League Elite · Group Stage - 5Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sharjah FC26%

×Draw23%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sharjah FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Hilal Saudi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.81

Sharjah FC

1.25

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.81

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.50

2.13

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sharjah FC

1.50

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.50

allows per match

Sharjah FC

2.13

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw

50%

Sharjah FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

77%

Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

74%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+

11%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals

71%

Sharjah FC 2+ goals

36%

Sharjah FC 3+ goals

13%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

84%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

54%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)

34%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.50 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.50 + Sharjah FC defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sharjah FC scores more

26%

level

23%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

50%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

Muteb Al Mufarrij

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · D

8.3

Match Events

5'

O. Camara↳ Khaled Ebraheim

42'

Saud Abdulhamid

45+1'

Majid Rashid

46'

Abdullah Al Hamdan← Matheus Pereira

46'

Yasser Al Shahrani← Abdulrahman Al Obaid

46'

Salman Al Faraj← Nasser Al Dawsari

52'

67'

75'

78'

80'

Abdulla Kazim← Mohammad Abdulbasit

85'

Mohammed Jahfali

88'

Ali Aldhanhani← O. Camara

90+5'

Adel Al Hosani

90+3'

Otabek Shukurov

90+2'

Shahin Abdulrahman

90+6'

Salem Al DawsariPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SharjahAl-Hilal

Overview

27%Possession73%

9Total Shots21

3Corners5

26Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots21

5On Target10

3Off Target7

1Blocked4

6Inside Box16

3Outside Box5

Passing

27%Possession73%

232Total Passes642

160Accurate Passes565

69%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

26Fouls10

5Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1