Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–1 Sharjah FC: Result & Stats

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sharjah FC

Michael 62'

Saleh Al Shehri 5' (pen)

O. Shukurov 7'

4/8/2022

AFC Champions League Elite · Group Stage - 1Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC67%

×Draw20%

Sharjah FC14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCExpected goals in this matchSharjah FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.83

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.11

Sharjah FC

0.83

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 154% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

3.00

Sharjah FC

1.00

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.67

Sharjah FC

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Sharjah FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw

86%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Sharjah FC

80%

Draw or Sharjah FC

33%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

42%

Sharjah FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

88%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

62%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

35%

Sharjah FC 1+ goals

56%

Sharjah FC 2+ goals

20%

Sharjah FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

83%

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Sharjah FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 3.00 + Sharjah FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

Sharjah FC attack 1.00 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

67%

level

20%

Sharjah FC scores more

14%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Salman Al Faraj

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · M

7.7

Match Events

5'

Saleh Al ShehriPenalty

7'

O. Shukurov↳ Luanzinho

34'

Abdullah Al Hamdan← Saleh Al Shehri

46'

Mohammed Jahfali← Jang Hyun-Soo

46'

Al Hassan Saleh← Ali Aldhanhani

46'

Majid Rashid← Mohammad Abdulbasit

62'

Michael↳ Matheus Pereira

65'

Abdulla Kazim← Saif Rashid

80'

Salem Saleh← Shahin Abdulrahman

81'

Caio

85'

Adel Al Hosani

86'

Nasser Al Dawsari← Michael

88'

Majid Surour← O. Shukurov

90+2'

Musab Al Juwayr← Matheus Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-HilalSharjah

Overview

74%Possession26%

19Total Shots4

12Corners1

10Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots4

4On Target2

10Off Target1

5Blocked1

13Inside Box4

6Outside Box0

Passing

74%Possession26%

646Total Passes226

582Accurate Passes156

90%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides7