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Shao Jiang vs Jia Hua — Primeira Divisão 2026

Shao Jiang
Shao Jiang
FT
3 – 3
Jia Hua
Jia Hua
4/25/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shao Jiang56%
×Draw18%
Jia Hua27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shao Jiang
2.99
Jia Hua
2.08

Shao Jiang creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 25 away

creates per match

Shao Jiang
4.37
Jia Hua
3.32

allows per match

Shao Jiang
0.84
Jia Hua
1.60

finishing

Shao Jiang+0.00on par
Jia Hua+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shao Jiang ↓

Jia Hua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Shao Jiang or draw
73%
Shao Jiang or Jia Hua
82%
Draw or Jia Hua
44%

Winning margin

Shao Jiang wins by 2+
37%
Jia Hua wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shao Jiang 1+ goals
95%
Shao Jiang 2+ goals
79%
Shao Jiang 3+ goals
56%
Jia Hua 1+ goals
87%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
61%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Shao Jiang (draw refunded)
68%
Jia Hua (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shao Jiang at home — creates 4.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Jia Hua away — creates 3.32, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shao Jiang attack 4.37 + Jia Hua defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.99

Jia Hua attack 3.32 + Shao Jiang defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shao Jiang scores more
56%
level
18%
Jia Hua scores more
27%

Shao Jiang at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shao Jiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shao Jiang vs Jia Hua

Shao Jiang and Jia Hua drew 3-3 in Primeira Divisão on April 25, 2026.