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Jia Hua vs Shao Jiang — Primeira Divisão 2026

Jia Hua
Jia Hua
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Shao Jiang
Shao Jiang
4/5/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 6Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Jia Hua23%
×Draw18%
Shao Jiang59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jia Hua
1.69
Shao Jiang
2.73

Shao Jiang creates 62% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

creates per match

Jia Hua
2.52
Shao Jiang
4.31

allows per match

Jia Hua
1.16
Shao Jiang
0.85

finishing

Jia Hua+0.00on par
Shao Jiang+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jia Hua ↓

Shao Jiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Jia Hua or draw
41%
Jia Hua or Shao Jiang
82%
Draw or Shao Jiang
77%

Winning margin

Jia Hua wins by 2+
11%
Shao Jiang wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Jia Hua 1+ goals
82%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
50%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
24%
Shao Jiang 1+ goals
93%
Shao Jiang 2+ goals
75%
Shao Jiang 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Jia Hua (draw refunded)
28%
Shao Jiang (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jia Hua at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Shao Jiang away — creates 4.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jia Hua attack 2.52 + Shao Jiang defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Shao Jiang attack 4.31 + Jia Hua defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jia Hua scores more
23%
level
18%
Shao Jiang scores more
59%

Shao Jiang at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Shao Jiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jia Hua vs Shao Jiang

Shao Jiang beat Jia Hua 6-1 in Primeira Divisão on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.