Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shao Jiang vs CPK — Primeira Divisão 2026

Shao Jiang
Shao Jiang
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
CPK
CPK
1/17/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shao Jiang36%
×Draw18%
CPK46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shao Jiang
2.56
CPK
2.90

CPK creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

creates per match

Shao Jiang
4.37
CPK
4.97

allows per match

Shao Jiang
0.84
CPK
0.76

finishing

Shao Jiang+0.00on par
CPK+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shao Jiang ↓

CPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Shao Jiang or draw
54%
Shao Jiang or CPK
82%
Draw or CPK
64%

Winning margin

Shao Jiang wins by 2+
20%
CPK wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Shao Jiang 1+ goals
92%
Shao Jiang 2+ goals
72%
Shao Jiang 3+ goals
46%
CPK 1+ goals
94%
CPK 2+ goals
78%
CPK 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Shao Jiang (draw refunded)
44%
CPK (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shao Jiang at home — creates 4.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

CPK away — creates 4.97, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shao Jiang attack 4.37 + CPK defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 2.56

CPK attack 4.97 + Shao Jiang defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shao Jiang scores more
36%
level
18%
CPK scores more
46%

CPK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Shao Jiang 3–2 CPK

Shao Jiang beat CPK 3-2 in Primeira Divisão on January 17, 2026.