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CPK vs Shao Jiang — Primeira Divisão 2026

CPK
CPK
FT
1 – 0
Shao Jiang
Shao Jiang
5/2/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

CPK47%
×Draw19%
Shao Jiang35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CPK
2.72
Shao Jiang
2.36

CPK creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 13 away

creates per match

CPK
4.59
Shao Jiang
4.31

allows per match

CPK
0.41
Shao Jiang
0.85

finishing

CPK+0.00on par
Shao Jiang+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CPK ↓

Shao Jiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

CPK or draw
65%
CPK or Shao Jiang
81%
Draw or Shao Jiang
53%

Winning margin

CPK wins by 2+
29%
Shao Jiang wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

CPK 1+ goals
93%
CPK 2+ goals
75%
CPK 3+ goals
50%
Shao Jiang 1+ goals
90%
Shao Jiang 2+ goals
68%
Shao Jiang 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

CPK (draw refunded)
57%
Shao Jiang (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CPK at home — creates 4.59, concedes 0.41 · 37 matches

Shao Jiang away — creates 4.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CPK attack 4.59 + Shao Jiang defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 2.72

Shao Jiang attack 4.31 + CPK defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 2.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CPK scores more
47%
level
19%
Shao Jiang scores more
35%

CPK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CPK vs Shao Jiang

CPK beat Shao Jiang 1-0 in Primeira Divisão on May 2, 2026.