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Shao Jiang vs Artilheiros — Primeira Divisão 2026

Shao Jiang
Shao Jiang
FT
14 – 0
HT: 7 – 0
Artilheiros
Artilheiros
7/3/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shao Jiang92%
×Draw5%
Artilheiros3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shao Jiang
5.06
Artilheiros
0.98

Shao Jiang creates 416% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

creates per match

Shao Jiang
4.37
Artilheiros
1.13

allows per match

Shao Jiang
0.84
Artilheiros
5.75

finishing

Shao Jiang+0.00on par
Artilheiros+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shao Jiang ↓

Artilheiros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Shao Jiang or draw
97%
Shao Jiang or Artilheiros
95%
Draw or Artilheiros
8%

Winning margin

Shao Jiang wins by 2+
81%
Artilheiros wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Shao Jiang 1+ goals
99%
Shao Jiang 2+ goals
95%
Shao Jiang 3+ goals
84%
Artilheiros 1+ goals
62%
Artilheiros 2+ goals
26%
Artilheiros 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shao Jiang (draw refunded)
97%
Artilheiros (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shao Jiang at home — creates 4.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Artilheiros away — creates 1.13, concedes 5.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shao Jiang attack 4.37 + Artilheiros defence 5.75 → ÷2 → 5.06

Artilheiros attack 1.13 + Shao Jiang defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Shao Jiang scores more
92%
level
5%
Artilheiros scores more
3%

Shao Jiang at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Shao Jiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shao Jiang vs Artilheiros

Shao Jiang beat Artilheiros 14-0 in Primeira Divisão on July 3, 2026.