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Artilheiros vs Shao Jiang — Primeira Divisão 2026

Artilheiros
Artilheiros
FT
0 – 12
HT: 0 – 6
Shao Jiang
Shao Jiang
3/15/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Artilheiros4%
×Draw6%
Shao Jiang90%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artilheiros
1.11
Shao Jiang
4.97

Shao Jiang creates 348% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Artilheiros
1.38
Shao Jiang
4.31

allows per match

Artilheiros
5.63
Shao Jiang
0.85

finishing

Artilheiros+0.00on par
Shao Jiang+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artilheiros ↓

Shao Jiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–24%
0–36%
0–48%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Artilheiros or draw
10%
Artilheiros or Shao Jiang
94%
Draw or Shao Jiang
96%

Winning margin

Artilheiros wins by 2+
1%
Shao Jiang wins by 2+
78%

Team goals

Artilheiros 1+ goals
67%
Artilheiros 2+ goals
30%
Artilheiros 3+ goals
10%
Shao Jiang 1+ goals
99%
Shao Jiang 2+ goals
95%
Shao Jiang 3+ goals
83%

Draw no bet

Artilheiros (draw refunded)
4%
Shao Jiang (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artilheiros at home — creates 1.38, concedes 5.63 · 8 matches

Shao Jiang away — creates 4.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artilheiros attack 1.38 + Shao Jiang defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.11

Shao Jiang attack 4.31 + Artilheiros defence 5.63 → ÷2 → 4.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Artilheiros scores more
4%
level
6%
Shao Jiang scores more
90%

Shao Jiang at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Shao Jiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Artilheiros vs Shao Jiang

Shao Jiang beat Artilheiros 12-0 in Primeira Divisão on March 15, 2026.