Shangyu Pterosaur 5–0 Quanzhou Yassin

Shangyu Pterosaur

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Quanzhou Yassin

5/12/2024

League Two · Round 8Dingnan Football Youth Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Shangyu Pterosaur47%

×Draw25%

Quanzhou Yassin28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shangyu PterosaurExpected goals in this matchQuanzhou Yassin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.20

Shangyu Pterosaur

1.63

Quanzhou Yassin

1.20

Shangyu Pterosaur creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 47 away

1.46

creates per match

0.77

1.63

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Shangyu Pterosaur

1.46

Quanzhou Yassin

0.77

allows per match

Shangyu Pterosaur

1.63

Quanzhou Yassin

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shangyu Pterosaur ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Shangyu Pterosaur or draw

72%

Shangyu Pterosaur or Quanzhou Yassin

75%

Draw or Quanzhou Yassin

53%

Winning margin

Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+

25%

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals

80%

Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals

48%

Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals

22%

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

70%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

34%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)

63%

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shangyu Pterosaur at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 1.46 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shangyu Pterosaur scores more

47%

level

25%

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

28%

Shangyu Pterosaur at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shangyu Pterosaur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff