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Quanzhou Yassin vs Shangyu Pterosaur — League Two 2022

Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shangyu Pterosaur
Shangyu Pterosaur
7/20/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 17Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin39%
×Draw29%
Shangyu Pterosaur32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quanzhou Yassin
1.19
Shangyu Pterosaur
1.05

Quanzhou Yassin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 55 away

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin
0.88
Shangyu Pterosaur
0.73

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin
1.38
Shangyu Pterosaur
1.49

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par
Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Shangyu Pterosaur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw
68%
Quanzhou Yassin or Shangyu Pterosaur
71%
Draw or Shangyu Pterosaur
61%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
17%
Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
70%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
33%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
12%
Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals
65%
Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals
28%
Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
55%
Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Shangyu Pterosaur away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.49 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.19

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 0.73 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more
39%
level
29%
Shangyu Pterosaur scores more
32%

Quanzhou Yassin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Quanzhou Yassin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Quanzhou Yassin 1–0 Shangyu Pterosaur

Quanzhou Yassin beat Shangyu Pterosaur 1-0 in League Two on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Jinjiang.