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Shangyu Pterosaur vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Shangyu Pterosaur
Shangyu Pterosaur
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
11/12/2022League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 3Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shangyu Pterosaur47%
×Draw24%
Hunan Billows FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.69
Hunan Billows FC
1.28

Shangyu Pterosaur creates 32% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 33 away

creates per match

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.46
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.63
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shangyu Pterosaur ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shangyu Pterosaur or draw
71%
Shangyu Pterosaur or Hunan Billows FC
76%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
53%

Winning margin

Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+
25%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals
82%
Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals
50%
Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals
24%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
72%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
37%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)
62%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shangyu Pterosaur at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 1.46 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shangyu Pterosaur scores more
47%
level
24%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
29%

Shangyu Pterosaur at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shangyu Pterosaur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Shangyu Pterosaur 1–2 Hunan Billows FC

Hunan Billows FC beat Shangyu Pterosaur 2-1 in League Two on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 9 in Dalian.