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Hunan Billows FC vs Shangyu Pterosaur — League Two 2022

Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shangyu Pterosaur
Shangyu Pterosaur
4/28/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Loudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hunan Billows FC38%
×Draw26%
Shangyu Pterosaur36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunan Billows FC
1.35
Shangyu Pterosaur
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 55 away

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.22
Shangyu Pterosaur
0.73

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.91
Shangyu Pterosaur
1.49

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par
Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Shangyu Pterosaur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw
64%
Hunan Billows FC or Shangyu Pterosaur
74%
Draw or Shangyu Pterosaur
62%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
17%
Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
74%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
39%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
15%
Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals
73%
Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals
38%
Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
51%
Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Shangyu Pterosaur away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.49 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 0.73 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more
38%
level
26%
Shangyu Pterosaur scores more
36%

Hunan Billows FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hunan Billows FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hunan Billows FC 3–1 Shangyu Pterosaur

Hunan Billows FC beat Shangyu Pterosaur 3-1 in League Two on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Loudi Sports Center in Loudi.