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Shangyu Pterosaur vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Shangyu Pterosaur
Shangyu Pterosaur
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
7/1/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Shangyu Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Shangyu Pterosaur42%
×Draw25%
Guangxi Lanhang32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.48
Guangxi Lanhang
1.25

Shangyu Pterosaur creates 18% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 40 away

creates per match

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.46
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.63
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shangyu Pterosaur ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shangyu Pterosaur or draw
68%
Shangyu Pterosaur or Guangxi Lanhang
75%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
58%

Winning margin

Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+
21%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals
77%
Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals
43%
Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals
19%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
71%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
36%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)
57%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shangyu Pterosaur at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 1.46 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shangyu Pterosaur scores more
42%
level
25%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
32%

Shangyu Pterosaur at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shangyu Pterosaur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shangyu Pterosaur vs Guangxi Lanhang

Guangxi Lanhang beat Shangyu Pterosaur 2-0 in League Two on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Shangyu Sports Center Stadium in Shaoxing.