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Guangxi Lanhang vs Shangyu Pterosaur — League Two 2022

Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Shangyu Pterosaur
Shangyu Pterosaur
6/7/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 13Dongxing Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang35%
×Draw28%
Shangyu Pterosaur37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Lanhang
1.15
Shangyu Pterosaur
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 55 away

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang
0.80
Shangyu Pterosaur
0.73

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang
1.70
Shangyu Pterosaur
1.49

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par
Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Shangyu Pterosaur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw
63%
Guangxi Lanhang or Shangyu Pterosaur
72%
Draw or Shangyu Pterosaur
65%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
14%
Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
68%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
32%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
11%
Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals
70%
Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals
34%
Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
48%
Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Shangyu Pterosaur away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.49 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.15

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 0.73 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more
35%
level
28%
Shangyu Pterosaur scores more
37%

Shangyu Pterosaur at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shangyu Pterosaur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangxi Lanhang 2–2 Shangyu Pterosaur

Guangxi Lanhang and Shangyu Pterosaur drew 2-2 in League Two on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Dongxing Sports Center in Dongxing.