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Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC — K League 2 2026

Bucheon FC 1995
Bucheon FC 1995
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Suwon City FC
Suwon City FC
8/9/2020K League 2K League 2 · Round 14Bucheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bucheon FC 199532%
×Draw25%
Suwon City FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucheon FC 1995
1.28
Suwon City FC
1.54

Suwon City FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 20 away

creates per match

Bucheon FC 1995
1.31
Suwon City FC
2.00

allows per match

Bucheon FC 1995
1.07
Suwon City FC
1.25

finishing

Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par
Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucheon FC 1995 ↓

Suwon City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bucheon FC 1995 or draw
57%
Bucheon FC 1995 or Suwon City FC
75%
Draw or Suwon City FC
68%

Winning margin

Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+
14%
Suwon City FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals
72%
Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals
37%
Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals
14%
Suwon City FC 1+ goals
79%
Suwon City FC 2+ goals
45%
Suwon City FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)
42%
Suwon City FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucheon FC 1995 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.07 · 106 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.31 + Suwon City FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Suwon City FC attack 2.00 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bucheon FC 1995 scores more
32%
level
25%
Suwon City FC scores more
43%

Suwon City FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Suwon City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

K League 2: Bucheon FC 1995 2–0 Suwon City FC

Bucheon FC 1995 beat Suwon City FC 2-0 in K League 2 on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Bucheon Stadium in Bucheon.