Bucheon FC 1995 1–0 Suwon City FC: Result & Stats

Bucheon FC 1995

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Suwon City FC

Choi Jae-Young 31'

4/27/2022

FA Cup · 3rd RoundBucheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bucheon FC 199552%

×Draw25%

Suwon City FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bucheon FC 1995Expected goals in this matchSuwon City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.94

Bucheon FC 1995

1.56

Suwon City FC

0.94

Bucheon FC 1995 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.88

creates per match

0.75

1.13

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Bucheon FC 1995

1.88

Suwon City FC

0.75

allows per match

Bucheon FC 1995

1.13

Suwon City FC

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par

Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucheon FC 1995 ↓

Suwon City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bucheon FC 1995 or draw

77%

Bucheon FC 1995 or Suwon City FC

75%

Draw or Suwon City FC

48%

Winning margin

Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+

27%

Suwon City FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals

79%

Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals

46%

Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals

21%

Suwon City FC 1+ goals

61%

Suwon City FC 2+ goals

24%

Suwon City FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)

69%

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucheon FC 1995 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.88 + Suwon City FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Suwon City FC attack 0.75 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bucheon FC 1995 scores more

52%

level

25%

Suwon City FC scores more

23%

Bucheon FC 1995 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bucheon FC 1995 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Choi Jae-Young

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff