SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shandong Luneng

Wu Lei 85' (pen)

V. Qazaishvili 57'

5/17/2025

Super League · Round 13Pudong Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG52%

×Draw21%

Shandong Luneng28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.56

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.18

Shandong Luneng

1.56

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 40% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

2.71

creates per match

1.77

1.34

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.71

Shandong Luneng

1.77

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.34

Shandong Luneng

1.65

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.08on par

Shandong Luneng-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

72%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Shandong Luneng

79%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

48%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

31%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

89%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

64%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

37%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

79%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

46%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

65%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.65 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.71 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.18

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

52%

level

21%

Shandong Luneng scores more

28%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Chen Wei

SHANGHAI SIPG · G

9.3

Match Events

17'

Matheus Jussa

46'

X. Li← Liu Ruofan

46'

Kuai Jiwen← Xu Xin

48'

Zhengyu Huang

55'

Xie Wenneng← Peng Xinli

57'

V. Qazaishvili

65'

Dalei Wang

66'

Wu Lei← Gabrielzinho

66'

Guilherme Madruga← Huang Zhengyu

74'

Gustavo← Mateus Vital

79'

Guilherme Madruga

82'

Zheng Zheng← Y. Li

83'

Kuai JiwenPenalty confirmed

85'

Wu LeiPenalty

90+1'

Wang Shenchao← Li Shuai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SHANGHAIShandong

Overview

61%Possession39%

10Total Shots20

1.50Expected Goals (xG)3.05

4Corners6

14Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots20

2On Target12

7Off Target4

1Blocked4

6Inside Box13

4Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

499Total Passes315

428Accurate Passes248

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

10Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides5

Super League: SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Shandong Luneng

SHANGHAI SIPG and Shandong Luneng drew 1-1 in Super League on May 17, 2025.

Goals: V. Qazaishvili (57'), Wu Lei (85' pen).

SHANGHAI SIPG controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 20.

The match was played at Pudong Football Stadium in Shanghai.

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super League: SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Shandong Luneng