Shandong Luneng 1–3 SHANGHAI SIPG: Result & Stats

Shandong Luneng

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

SHANGHAI SIPG

Zeca 54'

Wang Zhenao 90+3'

Leo Cittadini 45+5'

Li Shuai 37'

11/23/2024

FA Cup · FinalsWenzhou Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shandong Luneng28%

×Draw23%

SHANGHAI SIPG49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.78

Shandong Luneng

1.29

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.78

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

1.88

creates per match

3.00

0.56

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

1.88

SHANGHAI SIPG

3.00

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

0.56

SHANGHAI SIPG

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

51%

Shandong Luneng or SHANGHAI SIPG

77%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

72%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

12%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

72%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

37%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

14%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

83%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

53%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

36%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.88 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 3.00 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

28%

level

23%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

49%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Li Shuai↳ Gustavo

45+2'

Peng Xinli

45+2'

Zeca

45+5'

Leo Cittadini↳ Feng Jing

46'

Tong Lei← LI Yuanyi

49'

Leo Cittadini← Xu Xin

54'

Zeca

60'

Matheus Jussa

73'

Zeca← Bi Jinhao

82'

Liao Lisheng← Zhang Chi

82'

Peng Xinli← P. Delgado

87'

Feng Jing← Lu Wenjun

88'

LI Yuanyi

90+1'

Wang Shenchao← Wang Zhenao

90+3'

Wang Zhenao↳ Oscar

Shandong

SHANGHAI

1

3

4

2

32

⚽

Shuai

8

A

Oscar

18

⚽

Cittadini

22

Jussa

10

Vargas

9

A

Gustavo

27

A

14

5

33

2

3

25

20

10

17

9

19

⚽

Zeca

Manager: Choi Kang-Hee

46'▲Tong Lei←▼LI Yuanyi

73'▲Zeca←▼Bi Jinhao

82'▲Liao Lisheng←▼Zhang Chi

82'▲Peng Xinli←▼P. Delgado

Shandong Luneng substitutes

26Shibo29Pu27Ke21Binbin16Feifan22Yuanyi24Jinhao41Qihang8Delgado11Yang13Chi6Tong

Manager: K. Muscat

49'▲Leo Cittadini←▼Xu Xin

87'▲Feng Jing←▼Lu Wenjun

90+1'▲Wang Shenchao←▼Wang Zhenao

SHANGHAI SIPG substitutes

19Zhen'ao31Shimeng20Shiyuan12Wei16Xin38Deming6Huikang33Zhurun25Jia45Xiaolong13Zhen11Wenjun

Match Recap: Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shandong Luneng 3-1 in FA Cup on November 23, 2024.

Goals: Li Shuai (37'), Leo Cittadini (45+5'), Zeca (54'), Wang Zhenao (90+3').

The match was played at Wenzhou Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Wenzhou.

Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG — FA Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG