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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon — Super League 2026

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
5 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
Wu Lei 79'
Gustavo 76', 51', 50'
Léo Cittadini 47'
7/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24SAIC Motor Pudong Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG65%
×Draw18%
Qingdao Jonoon17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.47
Qingdao Jonoon
1.17

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 111% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.71
Qingdao Jonoon
1.00

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.34
Qingdao Jonoon
2.23

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.08on par
Qingdao Jonoon-0.10scores less

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
83%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Qingdao Jonoon
82%
Draw or Qingdao Jonoon
35%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
43%
Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
91%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
70%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
44%
Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
69%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
33%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
80%
Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.71 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.47

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.00 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
65%
level
18%
Qingdao Jonoon scores more
17%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. VargasSHANGHAI SIPGSHANGHAI SIPG · M
10.0

Match Events

35'
Léo Cittadini
41'
Shenchao WangGoal cancelled
46'
Li Shuai← Wang Shenchao
47'
Léo Cittadini↳ M. Vargas
50'
Gustavo↳ Wu Lei
51'
Gustavo↳ Oscar
59'
Zhong Jinbao← E. Sarić
67'
Wang Zihao← Diego Lopes
67'
Chen Chunxin← Sha Yibo
67'
Hu Jinghang← Zhang Wei
76'
Gustavo↳ M. Vargas
78'
Xu Xin← Léo Cittadini
78'
Lü Wenjun← Oscar
79'
Wu Lei↳ M. Vargas
80'
Zheng Long← Song Long
81'
Liu Zhurun← Gustavo
82'
Tyias Browning
83'
Zhang Linpeng← Jiang Guangtai
88'
Nikola Radmanovac
90+3'
Liu Junshuai

Possession

62%SHANGHAI

Shots

35SHANGHAI

Pass accuracy

54%SHANGHAI

Statistics

SHANGHAIQingdao
Overview
62%Possession38%
35Total Shots4
3.33Expected Goals (xG)0.38
11Corners1
9Fouls5
Shots
35Total Shots4
11On Target1
17Off Target1
7Blocked2
26Inside Box2
9Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
535Total Passes338
472Accurate Passes257
88%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls5
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Super League: SHANGHAI SIPG 5–0 Qingdao Jonoon

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 5-0 in Super League on July 21, 2024.

Goals: Léo Cittadini (47'), Gustavo (50', 51', 76'), Wu Lei (79').

SHANGHAI SIPG controlled possession (62%) and registered 35 shots to 4.

The match was played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Shanghai.