Qingdao Jonoon 3–4 SHANGHAI SIPG: Result & Stats

Qingdao Jonoon

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

SHANGHAI SIPG

Song Wenjie 90'

D. Lamkel Ze 37', 11'

X. Li 89'

Leonardo 40', 31'

Gabrielzinho 14'

10/17/2025

Super League · Round 27Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon36%

×Draw23%

SHANGHAI SIPG41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao JonoonExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.66

Qingdao Jonoon

1.53

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

1.44

creates per match

1.69

1.63

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.44

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.69

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.63

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.62

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon-0.13scores less

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.48scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw

59%

Qingdao Jonoon or SHANGHAI SIPG

77%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

64%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

17%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

78%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

45%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

20%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

81%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

49%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

46%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.62 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.44 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.69 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

36%

level

23%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

41%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

Leonardo

SHANGHAI SIPG · F

9.7

Match Events

11'

D. Lamkel Ze↳ E. Saric

14'

Gabrielzinho↳ Li Shuai

18'

Didier Lamkel ZéPenalty cancelled

19'

Didier Lamkel Zé

27'

Óscar Melendo

31'

Leonardo↳ Mateus Vital

37'

40'

45+6'

45+3'

54'

Lin Chuangyi← Mijit Mewlan

60'

Song Wenjie← Jin Yonghao

60'

Song Long← Liu Junshuai

67'

X. Li← Liu Ruofan

77'

Wei Zhen← O. Melendo

86'

Xiao Kun← Liu Jiashen

86'

Yang Shiyuan← Mateus Vital

86'

A. C. Jojo← Wang Shenchao

86'

Kuai Jiwen← Gabrielzinho

89'

X. Li↳ Leonardo

90'

Song Wenjie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoSHANGHAI

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots16

3.47Expected Goals (xG)2.29

5Corners2

9Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots16

8On Target9

5Off Target4

5Blocked3

12Inside Box15

6Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

462Total Passes417

378Accurate Passes337

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides7

Super League: Qingdao Jonoon 3–4 SHANGHAI SIPG

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 4-3 in Super League on October 17, 2025.

Goals: D. Lamkel Ze (11', 37'), Gabrielzinho (14'), Leonardo (31', 40'), X. Li (89'), Song Wenjie (90').

Qingdao Jonoon controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 16.

The match was played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Qingdao.

Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super League: Qingdao Jonoon 3–4 SHANGHAI SIPG