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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia — Super League 2026

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
Li Shenglong 44'
Gustavo 6'
Wang Shenchao 90' (OG)
4/2/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Pudong Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG66%
×Draw18%
Meizhou Kejia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.54
Meizhou Kejia
1.19

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 113% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.71
Meizhou Kejia
1.03

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.34
Meizhou Kejia
2.37

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.08on par
Meizhou Kejia-0.28scores less

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
84%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Meizhou Kejia
82%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
34%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
44%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
92%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
72%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
46%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
70%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
33%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
80%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.37 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.71 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.54

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
66%
level
18%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
16%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Mateus VitalSHANGHAI SIPGSHANGHAI SIPG · M
8.0

Match Events

6'
Gustavo↳ Mateus Vital
13'
Rodrigo Henrique
25'
Li Shenglong← Gustavo
44'
Li Shenglong↳ Li Shuai
46'
Ming Tian← Wang Zhenao
50'
Jerome Mbekeli
53'
Ziyi Tian
55'
Mateus Vital
57'
Feng Jing← X. Li
57'
Gabrielzinho← Liu Ruofan
61'
Ji Shengpan← Liu Yun
61'
Rao Weihui← Liao Junjian
73'
M. Cheukoua← Yang Chaosheng
73'
Zhang Hao← Rodrigo Henrique
77'
Zh.W. Wei
80'
Wang Shenchao← Li Shuai
80'
Yi Xianlong← Wei Zhiwei
90'
Wang ShenchaoOwn goal

Possession

50%SHANGHAI

Shots

19SHANGHAI

Pass accuracy

51%SHANGHAI

Statistics

SHANGHAIMeizhou
Overview
50%Possession50%
19Total Shots9
3.13Expected Goals (xG)1.16
2Corners4
18Fouls21
Shots
19Total Shots9
9On Target1
8Off Target6
2Blocked2
14Inside Box5
5Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
374Total Passes369
299Accurate Passes282
80%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
18Fouls21
1Yellow Cards4
3Offsides7

Super League: SHANGHAI SIPG 2–1 Meizhou Kejia

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Meizhou Kejia 2-1 in Super League on April 2, 2025.

Goals: Gustavo (6'), Li Shenglong (44'), Wang Shenchao (90' o.g.).

SHANGHAI SIPG controlled possession (50%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Pudong Football Stadium in Shanghai.