SHANGHAI SIPG 7–2 Meizhou Kejia: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

7 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Meizhou Kejia

M. Vargas 69', 65'

Wu Lei 63', 45+2', 38', 3'

Gustavo 31'

Yang Chaosheng 82'

Rodrigo Henrique 34'

8/9/2024

Super League · Round 22SAIC Motor Pudong Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG64%

×Draw18%

Meizhou Kejia17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.23

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.49

Meizhou Kejia

1.23

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 102% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 18 away

2.71

creates per match

1.11

1.34

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.71

Meizhou Kejia

1.11

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.34

Meizhou Kejia

2.27

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.08on par

Meizhou Kejia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

83%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Meizhou Kejia

82%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

36%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

43%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

92%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

71%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

45%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

71%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

35%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

79%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.27 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.71 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.49

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.11 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

64%

level

18%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

17%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Wu Lei

SHANGHAI SIPG · M

10.0

Match Events

3'

Wu Lei↳ Wang Shenchao

20'

Jia’nan Wang

30'

Weihui Rao

31'

Gustavo↳ Oscar

34'

Rodrigo Henrique↳ Yang Chaosheng

38'

Wu Lei↳ Oscar

45+2'

Wu Lei

46'

Xu Xin← Léo Cittadini

46'

Yue Tze Nam← Chen Zhechao

46'

Wei Zhiwei← Shi Liang

61'

Yang Shiyuan← Matheus Jussa

62'

Yin Congyao← T. Conraad

63'

Wu Lei

65'

M. Vargas↳ Oscar

69'

M. Vargas

70'

Fu Huan← Li Shuai

70'

Li Ning← Ye Chugui

77'

Yin Hongbo← Rodrigo Henrique

82'

Yang Chaosheng↳ Li Ning

84'

Lü Wenjun← Oscar

84'

Feng Jin← Wu Lei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SHANGHAIMeizhou

Overview

67%Possession33%

32Total Shots8

4.83Expected Goals (xG)1.05

10Corners4

15Fouls7

Shots

32Total Shots8

15On Target3

11Off Target4

6Blocked1

24Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

479Total Passes237

404Accurate Passes166

84%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls7

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3