Shanghai SIPG 3–2 Jiangsu Suning: Result & Stats

Shanghai SIPG

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Jiangsu Suning

3/9/2019

Super League · Round 2Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Shanghai SIPG54%

×Draw22%

Jiangsu Suning24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai SIPGExpected goals in this matchJiangsu Suning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.22

Shanghai SIPG

1.94

Jiangsu Suning

1.22

Shanghai SIPG creates 59% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 39 away

2.42

creates per match

1.54

0.90

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Shanghai SIPG

2.42

Jiangsu Suning

1.54

allows per match

Shanghai SIPG

0.90

Jiangsu Suning

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai SIPG+0.00on par

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai SIPG ↓

Jiangsu Suning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Shanghai SIPG or draw

76%

Shanghai SIPG or Jiangsu Suning

78%

Draw or Jiangsu Suning

46%

Winning margin

Shanghai SIPG wins by 2+

31%

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shanghai SIPG 1+ goals

86%

Shanghai SIPG 2+ goals

58%

Shanghai SIPG 3+ goals

30%

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals

70%

Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals

34%

Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shanghai SIPG (draw refunded)

69%

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai SIPG at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.90 · 119 matches

Jiangsu Suning away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai SIPG attack 2.42 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.94

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.54 + Shanghai SIPG defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shanghai SIPG scores more

54%

level

22%

Jiangsu Suning scores more

24%

Shanghai SIPG at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shanghai SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff