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Jiangsu Suning vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Super League 2018

Jiangsu Suning
Jiangsu Suning
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
10/21/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Nanjing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Jiangsu Suning40%
×Draw25%
SHANGHAI SIPG35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiangsu Suning
1.50
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 122 away

creates per match

Jiangsu Suning
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.90

allows per match

Jiangsu Suning
0.88
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.10

finishing

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangsu Suning ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jiangsu Suning or draw
65%
Jiangsu Suning or SHANGHAI SIPG
75%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
60%

Winning margin

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+
19%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals
78%
Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals
44%
Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals
19%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
75%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
40%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)
53%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangsu Suning at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.90 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.90 + Jiangsu Suning defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jiangsu Suning scores more
40%
level
25%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
35%

Jiangsu Suning at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jiangsu Suning vs SHANGHAI SIPG

Jiangsu Suning and SHANGHAI SIPG drew 0-0 in Super League on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Nanjing Olympic Sports Center in Nanjing.