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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Jeonbuk Motors — AFC Champions League 2018

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
12/4/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Khalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG31%
×Draw24%
Jeonbuk Motors45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.32
Jeonbuk Motors
1.63

Jeonbuk Motors creates 23% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.32
Jeonbuk Motors
1.77

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.48
Jeonbuk Motors
1.32

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
55%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Jeonbuk Motors
76%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
69%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
13%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
73%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
38%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
15%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
80%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
48%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
41%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.32 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.77 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
31%
level
24%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
45%

Jeonbuk Motors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: SHANGHAI SIPG 0–2 Jeonbuk Motors

Jeonbuk Motors beat SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 in AFC Champions League on December 4, 2020.

The match was played at Khalifa International Stadium in Doha.