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Jeonbuk Motors vs SHANGHAI SIPG — AFC Champions League 2018

Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
11/22/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Khalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors59%
×Draw22%
SHANGHAI SIPG19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonbuk Motors
1.93
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.00

Jeonbuk Motors creates 93% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors
2.18
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.05

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors
0.95
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.67

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw
81%
Jeonbuk Motors or SHANGHAI SIPG
78%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
41%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
35%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
85%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
57%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
30%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
63%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
26%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
75%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.18 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.93

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more
59%
level
22%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
19%

Jeonbuk Motors at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeonbuk Motors vs SHANGHAI SIPG

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-1 in AFC Champions League on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Khalifa International Stadium in Doha.