Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guizhou Zhicheng — Super League 2018

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
10/7/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG72%
×Draw16%
Guizhou Zhicheng12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.58
Guizhou Zhicheng
0.95

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 172% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 15 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.42
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.00

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
0.90
Guizhou Zhicheng
2.73

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
88%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Guizhou Zhicheng
84%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
28%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
50%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
92%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
72%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
47%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
61%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
25%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
86%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.90 · 119 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.42 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.58

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
72%
level
16%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
12%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: SHANGHAI SIPG 5–0 Guizhou Zhicheng

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Guizhou Zhicheng 5-0 in Super League on October 7, 2018.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.