Guizhou Zhicheng 1–1 SHANGHAI SIPG: Result & Stats

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SHANGHAI SIPG

5/12/2018

Super League · Round 10Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng26%

×Draw23%

SHANGHAI SIPG51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.78

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.19

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.78

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 122 away

1.27

creates per match

1.90

1.67

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.27

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.90

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.67

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

49%

Guizhou Zhicheng or SHANGHAI SIPG

77%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

74%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

10%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

70%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

33%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

12%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

83%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

53%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

33%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.90 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

26%

level

23%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

51%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff